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CC.info Forecasts Quebec 2019 emissions with 98.2% accuracy

November 10, 2020 by Anant Jain

On the 3rd November, the Quebec Ministry of Environment and Climate Change released their data on carbon emissions for 2019 reported under the WCI Cap and Trade Program. In 2019, covered facilities emitted a total of 60,977,567 Mt CO2e.

Our analyst team at California Carbon was able to forecast 2019 covered emissions with an accuracy of 98.2%. In early October, on one of our webinars, we presented our forecast of 59,895,958 Mt CO2e. Compared to their data, our forecast was lower by a small margin of 1,081,609 Mt CO2e.

We recently presented our short-term forecast for 2020 and 2021 taking the Covid-19 impact into account. Click here to know more. We are also in the process of updating our long term 2030 Forecast and hope to release a report in December. (Subscribe for a trial membership to get access to our daily newsletter and our announcements)

On comparison of reported emissions of 2018 and 2019, we find that the largest polluting sectors saw the lowest reduction in YoY emissions. The Transport sector and stationary combustion sources both saw lower reductions in emissions. This is visible in the figure above. Reductions in reported emissions are visible in Mineral Products. The sector ‘other emissions’ consists of reported emissions that were not categorized into distinct sectors.

The transportation sector continues to pose a significant challenge for the regulator in its goal for 2030. Unlike California, the transport sector in Quebec continues to show resilience to reductions. Although, the federal government of Canada is rolling out the Canadian Clean Fuel Standard (CFS) by 2022 to address this.

Quebec’s energy mix is unique in that 99% of its electricity is generated by renewable sources. This puts it ahead of the herd; it reduces the number of working pathways to meet its 2030 goal.  

(Source: WCI Emissions Report ‘End of the Trend’)

The figure above is sourced from our recent WCI Emissions Report ‘End of the Trend’. Click here to learn more. The purple line illustrates the declining cap on emission units. We do not see that buffer between the cap and the annual emissions as was in the case of California , although the scale of the jurisdiction is one fifth that of California. Our short-term forecast presents expected emissions for 2020 and 2021 and we see the buffer increase in 2020 due to the impact of the coronavirus. The emissions for 2021 exhibits a cause for concern as it lies much above that of the year’s cap.

Analyst Contact:

Anant Jain |anant.jain@californiacarbon.info

Economist:

Chandan Kumar

Editor:

Harry Horner

Additional Resources:

1. Webinar | Quebec & California: Annual Emissions Outlook
2. InSight | WCI Emissions Near-term Emissions Forecast and sector review: 2018-2021 ‘The end of the trend’
3. InSight| 2030 Allowance Prices and GHG Emissions Forecast

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