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2030 Allowances Price and GHG Emission Forecast for WCI Carbon Market

CaliforniaCarbon.info publishes the annual update to its market-leading forecast for WCI Cap-and-Trade. The 2021 compendium combines the latest industrial data across each major sector to give an update on the near-term emissions outlook as the North American economy climbs its way out of the effects of COVID-19. The new report also is sensitive to the change in Federal climate policy after Biden\\\\\\\'s April announcements.

Our updated forecast finds that WCI 2020 emissions are expected to be slightly higher than earlier predicted in our January 21 model run.

Perhaps most significantly, the analysis includes potential program scenarios and price pathways through to 2050. The 2050 scenarios are built around the targets presented in California and Quebec\\\\\\\'s Climate Goals. This represents one of the market\\\\\\\'s first ever 2050 carbon price forecasts under multiple regulatory and economic scenarios, this sort of time-range will be crucial for long-horizon decision-making for businesses throughout California and Quebec.

This report estimates Californian and Quebec emissions in specific sector and entity-level detail for 2020 and 2021, and in the light of the recent pandemic, it charts the probable pathways back to a more �normal� level of economic activity. We have also updated the model scenarios to better reflect the �new normal� which economies may well be heading towards.

CaliforniaCarbon.info has combined past emissions data with company annual reports and industry-level production data, thus enabling a high degree confidence in accurately predicting the still unannounced 2020 and 2021 emissions. The report is an update to our previous year�s effort, adding in new facility production data from 2020 and a revised emissions, supply-demand, and price forecast. We have then combined our 2030 and 2050 Forecast into the report from our general equilibrium model which is explained below.

We have modeled 4 scenarios in this report till 2030 and 5 scenarios till 2050:

1. Present Trajectory Scenario

2. Off-the Rails (high emissions) Scenario

3. Meeting Climate Goals Scenario

4. Accelerated Climate Action Scenario

5. Delayed Climate Goals Scenario

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