CaliforniaCarbon.info\'s updated 2021 WCI Offsets Outlook: Outlook for DEBs & Non-DEBs provides both detailed insights into current offset market dynamics, and a 2030 forecast for net supply-demand and prices as the markets splits into DEBs and Non-DEBs after the controversial AB398 ruling.
AB 398 stated half of surrendered offsets need to have Direct Environmental Benefits to California. This has driven a wedge into the well-established offsets market and will effectively split into two sub-markets - each with its own supply dynamics and price schedule.
Our report finds that DEB offsets are likely to be in shortage over the second half of the decade. This will impact all compliance entities and will alter the business decisions of all offset developers, verifiers, and other stakeholders. The market is steadily pricing this in, a small price split has already been observed by brokers, but the total effect of the ruling has still not yet been felt, nor fully appreciated. This report provides some much-needed clarity and quantitative analysis.
From what weâ€™ve seen thus far, offsets have proved the aspect of the WCI Cap-and-Trade program that ARB has seen most fit to experiment with. As such, anyone wishing to understand the WCI market and its future needs a clear a picture as possible of the offsets program. This report\\\'s analysis and research is the next step on that journey of understanding.
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