Weekly Carbon Outlook – Aug 28, 2017

August 28, 2017 by Ronjoy Bezbarua

(See below to download report)

Trading Report

  • CCA prices rose significantly, closing at $15.16 for the front (Aug 17) and $15.28 for the benchmark (Dec 17)
  • OCA Dec 17 benchmark prices rose to CAD 19.00 (USD 15.21)
  • OI saw a positive net change of 674,000 contracts
  • Volumes traded saw a minor decrease to 1 million tons

Price Expectations

  • CCAs price bounce back above USD 15 following the second fully subscribed auction of the year
  • Cumulative Quarterly surplus stands at over 34 million
  • Expected V17 ranges: $15.12- $15.20 (Front); $15.25- $15.33(2017 Benchmark)

CCO Tracker

  • 695K ARBOCs issued by ARB in latest issuance
  • Rotation of verifiers brings 1 million CCO-3s online
  • The White Mountain Apache Tribe (ACR211) recipient of 288K offsets
  • Registries issue 385K to a Blue Source Forestry project and Californian based Livestock project
  • CCO prices rise in value in response to Tuesday’s positive auction results

Policy Tracker

  • AB 398- (Garcia, De León) Extension of Cap-and-Trade from 2020 – 2030 with the introduction of a price ceiling, price containment points, reduced offset usage and revisions of industry assistance factors.
  • SB 100- (Kevin de León) The California Renewables Portfolio Standard Program would double up California’s renewable energy ambition, mandating 100% RE procurement by 2045.
  • SB 498- (Skinner) Beginning no later than 2024-2025 fiscal year, at least 50% of the light-duty vehicles purchased for the state vehicle fleet each year must be zero emission vehicles.

Key Dates

  • Aug 31 –Public workshop to discuss proposed California adoption of Federal Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions Standards for medium- and heavy-duty engines and vehicles
  • Sep 06 – Ontario cap and trade auction of greenhouse gas allowances.

Download this report (pdf)

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