Weekly Carbon Outlook – Feb 21, 2017

February 21, 2017 by Billy Hamshaw

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Trading Report

  • Front Prices close at $13.52, 5 cents below the auction reserve price of $13.57
  • Open interest creation slowed, with a net week on week change of 105,000 contracts
  • OCA’s current year benchmark trading at $13.97, a premium of $0.24 over CCA’s

Price Expectations

  • Lower funding rate encourages participants to carry-trade
  • CC.info analysts expect a strong result in this the first auction of this year.
  • Expected V17 ranges: $13.50 – $13.55 (Front); $13.72 – $13.75(2017 Benchmark)

CCO Tracker

  • 269,600 ROCs added to the registries, 38,126 of which will be held in the buffer pool
  • Lukens Avoided Conversion Project (ACR265) & Garcia River Forest IFM (CAR1098) recipients of 165,916 & 1,523 respectively.
  • Linde (CAR1077) clock second lowest ROC issuance for single reporting period.
  • 2 new project assignments for Agri-Waste Technology
  • Climate Action Reserve list A-Gas Americas 2017-2 (CAR1252)
  • Pending forestry credits could boost market as ARB announce issuances this week

Policy Tracker

  • Lawmakers announce AB 378, a new measure to address climate change with an increased focus on finding ways to help communities harmed by pollution and poverty.

Key Dates

  • Feb 22– WCI Joint Auction 10
  • Mar 17 – Public Working Meeting focused primarily on potentially on including Alternative Jet Fuel in the Low Carbon Fuel Standard

Download the report (pdf)

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