Weekly Carbon Outlook – July 3, 2017

July 3, 2017 by Ronjoy Bezbarua

(See below to download report)

Trading Report

  • Bolstered by the Supreme Court ruling, front prices rise further, reaching $14.69 and $14.84 for the benchmark
  • Front changes to Jun 2017 on 28 June
  • Significant fall in OI, as 578,000 contracts are liquidated OCA prices close at CAD 19.26 (USD14.52)
  • Volume growth reaches 3,777,000 tons

Price Expectations

  • The current front reached its new peak of USD 14.69 during an eventful week on the policy front
  • A 6% offset usage might pull the CCA price below USD 50 in 2030.
  • Expected V17 ranges: $14.50- $14.58 (Front); $14.75- $14.83 (2017 Benchmark)

CCO Tracker

  • Buckeye Forest Project (CAR1013) and Tradewater ODS 5 (ACR370) sole recipients as 220k CCOs issued
  • Registry credits issued to Tradewater ODS 6 (ACR379)
  • 6% offset usage suggested in latest draft extension proposal

Policy Tracker

  • SB 100- Introduced by Senate President Pro Tem Kevin de León, it requires California to generate all its electricity from renewable.
  • SB 498-Introduced by Senator Skinner. It is an act to add Section 43018.8 to the Health and Safety Code, and to add Section 25724 to the Public Resources Code, relating to vehicular air pollution
  • SB 775 – It would now no longer allow banking of allowances and use of offsets in the cap-and-trade program beyond 2020. It also prevents free allocation of allowances and thus incentivise industry to invest in cleaner technology.

Key Dates

  • July 18-29 – Clean Energy Summit to brief delegates on the latest policy, finance, business and technology developments impacting the renewable energy sector.

Download this report (pdf)

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