Weekly Carbon Outlook – Sep 18, 2017

September 18, 2017 by Ronjoy Bezbarua

(See below to download report)

Trading Report

  • CCA prices rebounded from mid-week, closing at $15.23 for the front (V17 Sep17) and $15.32 for the benchmark (V17 Dec17)
  • OCA Dec 17 benchmark prices rose to CAD 18.69 (USD 15.34)
  • OI saw a positive net change of 1,345,000 contracts
  • Traded volumes increased to 6,836,000 tons

Price Expectations

  • Sell-side pressure subsides as low prices incentivize more trades
  • Price volatility found to increase significantly and market expected to trade in wider range over the coming weeks
  • Early technical indicators show prices being ranged within USD15.30 to USD15.00

CCO Tracker

  • Over 654K ARBOCs were issued last week in ARB’s latest round of issuance
  • Blue Creek (ACR282) forestry project was the recipient of over 540K ARBOCs
  • ARB retired 847,895 ARB Offset Credits from the Forest Buffer Account on account of fires affecting the Trinity Timberlands University Hill Improved Forest Management Project (CAR1046)
  • The backlog of ROCs reduced to a still high 40.61 million
  • Offset prices saw a decline in prices with Golden CCOs taking the largest hit

Policy Tracker

  • SB 100- (Kevin de León) The California Renewables Portfolio Standard Program would double up California’s renewable energy ambition, mandating 100% RE procurement by 2045. It got amended in Assembly on 11th Sep 2017
  • SB 498-(Skinner) Beginning no later than 2024-2025 fiscal year, at least 50% of the light-duty vehicles purchased for the state vehicle fleet each year must be zero emission vehicles. I got amended in Assembly on 5th Sept to include heavy duty ZEVs.
  • AB 398- (Garcia, De León) Extension of Cap-and-Trade from 2020 – 2030 with the introduction of a price ceiling, price containment points, reduced offset usage and revisions of industry assistance factors.

Key Dates

  • Sep 22– Staff Presentation of Amendments to the Low Carbon Fuel Standard
  • Sep 28- Public hearing to hear an update on the development of the San Joaquin Valley State Implementation Plan


Download this report (pdf)

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